How Are We Doing?

by T. C. Pinckney                                                                                        Vol. XV, No. 9, October 2002

Of course the answer to that question depends upon who is meant by “we” and on the way we measure change. In SBC life by far the most important criterion is our spiritual status: Are our people growing closer to the Lord? Are they steadily becoming more obedient? Are we planting seeds that the Holy Spirit can use to bring more people into the Kingdom? Yet spiritual state is impossible for us to measure in a precise manner. We can apparently tell when someone is unsaved, for their life is characterized by sin of one type or another. Yet it is often difficult if not impossible to be entirely certain a person is saved, the human ability to dissemble being so well developed. And these limitations on accurate judgment come from the fact that man looks at the outside, only God at the heart as God reminds us in I Samuel 16:7.

Consequently, we tend to depend in our measurements and judgments upon numbers. We should keep in mind that numbers are certainly not everything; nevertheless, they are something. If they indicate a trend over a fairly lengthy period, we are justified in drawing some conclusions from them.

It is with these qualifications in mind that the following data and comments are presented.

SBC

First let’s review some Southern Baptist numbers. In 1985 the SBC recorded 36,979 churches as members and from those churches through the state conventions received $117,576,691 in Cooperative program dollars. The number of churches has grown each year since 1985 with the sole exception of 1998 when there was a drop of 17 churches (-0.04%). At the close of the 2001 fiscal year total churches stood at 42,334 ... an increase of 746 or 1.79% from the preceding FY.

SBC CP receipts grew from the 1985 figure of $117,576,691 to $176,962,402 in FY 2001. Four of these 17 years showed dollar declines: 1991, 92, and 93 when the amount received dropped from $140,710,282 in FY 1990 to $136,539,730 in FY 93, percentage decreases of 0.36%, 1.40%, and 1.23% respectively. The fourth decrease came in FY 2001 when CP receipts fell $1,336,477 or 0.75%.

SBC summary: On the whole, this is not a bad record. However, there is a trend of the SBC receiving a smaller percentage of total CP gifts, which means that as a whole state conventions are retaining a larger share. During this 17 year period the high point was 1988 when the SBC was sent 39.12%. In 2001 the figure was 36.32%.

CBF

We can’t go back as far with the Cooperative Baptist Fellowship since it did not exist until 1991. In 1992 CBF recorded donations from 841 churches. Growth in the early years was rapid. For example, in 1993 CBF experienced an increase of 409 churches, though it dropped to between 64 and 167 annually between 1994 and 1999. The latter year marked a high point for CBF with checks received from 1,806 churches. In 2000 there was a slight decrease of 9 churches to 1,797, and in 2001 another decline of 21 to 1,776. The September 2002 issue of fellowship!, the CBF journal, records another drop of 61 churches to 1,715.

But just what do these numbers mean? Do the 1,715 churches all have CBF in their budgets, or do some of the checks received simply reflect one or more church members giving a designated offering to CBF through their church? It is quite likely that at least some of the 1,715 are merely forwarding designations, but there seems to be no sure way to determine how many.

One can speculate. In some cases a liberal pastor may have led his church to support CBF; then, after he had left, the church leadership returned the church to SBC support. In other instances, perhaps just one or two members had been designating gifts for CBF. But after several years, those members decided their church would never join CBF and so they moved to a more liberal church. One would like to think that over time congregations become more informed about SBC and CBF programs and policies and decide that the SBC is more biblical, CBF more liberal and change their giving accordingly. Perhaps each of these reasons and others are present in various churches, but we really do not know.

Nevertheless, a drop of 91 churches (5.0%) in three fiscal years must be a matter of concern for CBF-ers, though that concern may be tempered a bit by the somewhat more favorable dollar figures.

In their 2002 FY, CBF received total income (designated and undesignated) of $21,304,674 or 27% above the previous year, a gratifying increase indeed, though undesignated gifts were only 2.6% above 2001, and designations accounted for $4,134,903 of the $4,527,973 total increase. The designations included $300,000 for ministries in New York and Washington, DC, after the 9/11 attacks, and an anonymous $4,000,000 gift for Global Missions. Without the anonymous gift, designated giving would have risen 7%.

CBF summary: Negative: three years of decreasing numbers of churches sending gifts. Positive: dollar receipts up in spite of fewer churches.

SBCV

The Southern Baptist Conservatives of Virginia is even newer than CBF, having been formed on 16 September 1996. At the end of our first year (in 1997) 158 churches had joined. Annual church growth for 1998 - 2001 has been 54, 41, 39, 38, and as of 23 September 2002 stands at 21 churches this FY. Of the total 350 churches now affiliated, 306 are uniquely aligned, 44 dually with both the BGAV and the SBCV. Incidentally, as time goes by some dually aligned move to unique and fewer new churches choose dual status. Of the 21 new affiliations this FY only one is dual.

This year two churches have withdrawn from the SBCV and returned to the BGAV, and three churches disbanded. But SBCV church planting is moving ahead vigorously. Last year 16 new churches were planted; so far this year the figure is 18. Currently, there are 45 to 50 churches in one or another stage of church planting by the SBCV.

Not surprisingly dollar contributions have also grown dramatically. Cooperative Program donations from 1997 through 2001 were $1,815,000; $2,789,000; $3,537,000; $3,970,000; and $4,474,000 ... each year considerably ahead of budget. Through the end of August this year CP receipts stand at $3,590,537 compared to the figure for the same date last year of $3,040,827 ... an increase of $550,000 or 18%.

Designated offerings: Lottie Moon and Annie Armstrong offerings are ahead of last year, but other designations are down, apparently because many churches and individuals sent large gifts to New York and Washington due to 9/11.

The number of giving churches last year was 337, and this year it has increased to 361. Note that more churches give than are affiliated: 361 compared to 350.

Potential for new affiliations: There remains a considerable number of BGAV churches loyal to the SBC and which may decide to join the SBCV. This conclusion is based on an examination of the number of churches choosing the various BGAV giving plans as reported in the 2001 BGAV annual.

WM-3 is the plan in which all the money going out of state is sent to the CBF. 142 churches (9.6%) participate in WM-3, and it is unlikely any of them would change enough to move to the SBCV ... at least without major changes in church leadership.

809 churches are in WM-2, the “standard” BGAV plan. These churches represent some 54.5% of all BGAV churches but give only 37% of the dollar donations. This suggests that many of them (though certainly not all) are among the smaller and likely less well informed congregations. In turn this implies that over time a number of them may decide to join the SBCV, but here we are talking about a good many years.

In the WM-1 budget track all the money going out of state (34%) goes to the SBC, and of course the track must be intentionally selected by a church. The 346 WM-1 churches (23.3%) are clearly loyal Southern Baptists and obvious candidates for a decision to affiliate with the SBCV, and they give 31% of BGAV budget receipts.

A BGAV church may also design its own giving plan, and 187 churches (12.6%) have done so. Interestingly, all of these churches have chosen to allocate more to the SBC than even the 34% for SBC included in WM-1. Obviously this decision by these 187 churches suggests a very good possibility they will move to the SBCV, some perhaps quite soon.

SBCV summary: The SBCV continues to grow in numbers of affiliated churches, in dollar resources to do the Lord’s work, and in new church plants. And because church plant work is being emphasized, our main growth in future years will likely come from those plants. Still, as the above discussion suggests, every year we will probably see at least a few churches decide to leave the BGAV and shift to the SBCV.

BGAV

The Baptist General Association of Virginia faces major difficulties. From a 1995 high point of 1,570 churches, they now number 1484. Dollar receipts have only met or exceeded budget in one of the last twelve years with shortfalls ranging from 1.47% to the end-of-August 2002 7.53%. And those shortfalls have occurred despite reduced budgets. Whereas the BGAV budget in 1990 through 1993 stood at $16,300,000, today it is at $15,200,000. In 2001 the budget was $15,000,000 and was almost met by receipts of $14,729,515.

One consequence of the fund shortage is that BGAV staff has been reduced. A second result is that new “visions” are repeatedly proposed. Paradoxically, the new ideas always come with a requirement for new staff to implement them, and so even more present staff must be terminated, or newly open positions not be filled, or staff must be transferred to new jobs.

Seems to me that the BGAV’s problem cannot be solved by new organizations, remodeled staffs, or even larger receipts, for the fundamental issue is not in organizational arrangements or budget amounts but is theological and conceptual. To rely upon essentially superficial fixes is akin to putting a layer of new shingles on the roof when the some of the rafters are misaligned, others are rotten, more are sagging, and still more are cracked and splintered. In such a situation, new shingles will only add to the problem, not fix it.

For some time the BGAV has tried to keep everyone happy by providing widely varying budget tracks and proclaiming a strong welcome to all (or at least a very wide variety of) theological viewpoints ... all the while under decidedly liberal state leaders. It sends money to CBF and the Baptist Theological Seminary at Richmond and still wants biblical conservatives and loyal Southern Baptists to be content within its fold. Simultaneously, it sends millions to the SBC Cooperative Program and expects the many liberal Virginia Baptists just to accept that, go along to get along. It encourages women in the pastorate and sees no reason conservatives should object.

Clearly BGAV leaders would prefer to leave or at least ignore the SBC and either affiliate with the CBF or simply pursue their own course. However, they are restrained because to do so would cause many, perhaps 500 or more churches to leave the BGAV in the relatively short term, even more over a few years.

The rather obvious fact is that simply saying, “Y’all come!” doesn’t make for a mutually enjoyable party. There are lots of folks who would not enjoy a party at my house because no alcohol is served (or allowed), there is no smoking, no drugs are available, and a certain modicum of dress and language is expected. And I certainly wouldn’t enjoy (indeed, would not stay at) a party where those rather mild limitations were not in place. And, I believe, everyone understands that.

How then can BGAV leaders really expect that simply proclaiming a “big tent” policy will make for a happy constituency of churches which have basic theological differences? As these differences come to be better understood by pastors and the folks in the pews, I suggest we will witness two antithetical responses among BGAV churches: Convictionally liberal churches will become more vocally pro-BGAV and anti-SBC. Convictionally biblical churches, those who believe the Bible is God-breathed and that He meant what He said, will one by one come to understand the spiritual downward spiral the BGAV has created for itself and will withdraw. The considerable majority of this latter group will join the SBCV. There may be a much smaller number who affiliate directly with the SBC but with no state convention. And a few may become independent Baptist churches even as more currently independent churches join the SBCV and SBC.

So what is ahead for the BGAV? Even those of us most adamantly opposed to their theology and actions must sympathize with the tangled web they have woven. There seems no alternative to a long, painful, withering away of a once strong, even leading Baptist state convention. They will plant new churches, but liberal theology offers no appeal over mere humanism beyond liturgy, ritual, and habit ... and these appeal to fewer and fewer with each passing year. Only God’s revealed Word is ever fresh, ever nourishing, ever satisfying. Consequently, liberal churches and organizations slowly starve spiritually, then monetarily, and finally numerically. While only God looks at the heart and accurately judges our spiritual condition, we are even now witnessing the BGAV’s ever so gradual financial and membership withering away.

Amos 3:3