HMB STUDY: BAPTISTS LOSING GROUND IN SOUTH

by David Winfrey                                                                                                                      Vol. VIII, No. 5, May 1995

Southern Baptists are losing the metropolitan South. That's one conclusion from a report by Charles Chaney, Home Mission Board vice president of extension, or church starting, who urged greater church planting efforts in Southern cities and suburbs.

"There is a massive unfinished task in the South, and it is getting more unfinished every year," wrote Chaney, who compared the number of Southern Baptist churches and their membership with the populations in 1970 and 1993, the latest available figures.

The study found the denomination grew faster than the population outside the South, but Southern Baptists lost strength in their own backyard. And, Chaney wrote, those gains made outside the South are still minimal.

According to the report, the U.S. population grew 27 percent during the years studied, but the number of Southern Baptist churches increased only 13 percent.

In the South, the population grew 42 percent while SBC churches increased only 9 percent. "This represents a serious loss of market share," Chaney wrote. The Southern population to church ratio grew from 2,196 people for every SBC church to 2,876 people.

"We must not get to the place where we think we've got it made, because we are losing strength in the areas where we think we're strongest," Chaney told Baptist Press.

The South still holds the lion's share of SBC constituted churches (80.4 percent) and resident members (85.5 percent). As a result, the gains made in new work areas often appear more dramatic.

Outside the South, population grew 20 percent and SBC churches grew 32 percent. The ratio of population to Southern Baptist churches decreased 9.3 percent, but there are still 22,196 people for every Southern Baptist church – a ratio Chaney termed unacceptable.

"The job is unfinished outside the South by whatever standard you want to say."

Reducing the ratio outside the South to one church for every 5,000 people (nearly double the Southern ratio) would require 26,000 more churches, he said. "We did not have 26,000 churches until 1945 – 100 years after the Southern Baptist Convention was organized."

Southern Baptist currently average 1,119 church starts a year, he noted. Even if all those occurred outside the South, it would take 24 years to reach that ratio of one church per 5,000 people. Southern states needed 9,632 more churches at the end of 1993 for the number

of people for each SBC church to equal the 1970 level. "We have to get far more serious about evangelism and church planting."

One encouraging sign from Chaney's report is a 4 percent reduction in the nationwide ratio of SBC members to population from one out of every 25 U.S. residents to one out of every 24. But in the South the ratio grew 10 percent.

Southern Baptist started 1,297 congregations last year, but Chaney wrote the convention's average 1,119 new congregations each year "provides no grounds for boasting."

"Overall our intention is to try to pick up the pace," Chaney said. "What we have been doing may be steady, but it has been slow. The unfinished task is immense."

Chaney recommended a detailed study of communities to identify the best response in each case. Such a study would include current churches' strengths and the presence of other denominations, he said.

Many communities lost ground because they changed ethnically or socio-economically, Chaney said. "The churches that were there are in decline because there are no more people like them to reach and they can't make the transition."

Chaney recommended state conventions begin intervention programs to identify churches and help them refocus on reaching their changing communities. Such work, however, will be slow he said. "The truth is that very few churches will accept intervention until they're absolutely on their last leg, and that's tragic."

EDITORS' NOTE: The eight-page report was mailed to state Baptist newspapers by the Atlanta bureau of Baptist press. A copy of the report with 62-page appendix is available from the bureau by calling (404) 898-7518. [BP]