Y2K and U

by   T. C. Pinckney                                                                                                                                    Vol. XII, No. 2, February 1999

We are reading, seeing, and hearing more about “Y2K”, the potential problems caused by the fact that thirty and more years ago computer programmers, working with very limited capacity on central computer drives, used only two digits for storing the year in software programs. Thus 1975 was (and is in those older programs) only 75.

Those programmers assumed that the main frame computers of their day would be replaced long before the year 2000 rolled around. They were wrong. Many of those main frame computers are still in use. The challenge is enormous because there are vast amounts of computer code to be checked. I have read that the Social Security Administration alone is responsible for 63 million line of code!

The problem is complicated further because a number of the computer “languages” then current are no longer used, so the number of programmers capable of working in them (to correct the date problem) has decreased due to aging, death, retirements, and no replacements being trained. Moreover, in developing programs which were never expected to be refurbished, programmers often used many different “languages” and made no record of where or what languages, or if they did record such information, it has been lost or destroyed in the intervening decades.

Still another complication is that many devices used today from factory assembly line machines to ocean-going oil tankers and merchant ships, to railroad-highway crossing gates to ATM machines to catscanners in hospitals to water utility purification chemical dispensers to telecommunications equipment and millions of other devices we depend upon for the smooth operation of everyday life use “embedded chips.” An embedded chip is a computer chip built into a device that normally is never removed. These chips are in use literally by the billions. I have seen estimates of 50 billion to 80 billion worldwide. And perhaps five to seven percent of them contain the date problem.

The interdependence of our world makes the problem even more serious. Take one example: General Motors has over 100,000 other companies that supply it with various items used in the production of its automobiles. Come 1 January 2000, GM itself may be 100% compliant” (that is, they have checked, corrected, and thoroughly tested all of their own in-house computers and equipment and the date is no longer a problem), but if just the one or two companies supplying an essential part crash, within three days GM production stops. And then the production of their 100,000 suppliers stops. This is the “domino effect.”

Think about the implications and you will see that they could be extremely serious. Where does this leave us? What can we say about it?

A. The first thing is that nobody claims to know what will happen. It may be that Y2K will pass with hardly a blip, only minor problems which are quickly fixed. Or, so many problems may occur that the domino effect becomes increasingly serious and our entire economy, international system, and national and state governments cease to exist as we know them. In this worst case scenario millions would be without jobs, railroad and truck transportation would collapse, grocery stores would be bare, and there would be no electricity, municipal water, natural gas, or gasoline. In such a situation, it is reasonable to presume riots and looting in the cities as people without food, without water, without heat, without money, and without jobs become desperate.

The countryside would be better, but perhaps only marginally so. Farmers today plant hybrid seed for better yields. But if hybrid seeds can no longer be produced or shipped if produced, farmers would be without seed to plant. Even if by foresight they saved seeds from last year’s crop, hybrid seeds do not breed true. So while the countryside is much more apt to have water and wood for fuel, they would be without prepared foods, gasoline or diesel for tractors, et cetera.

The likelihood is that Y2K effects will fall somewhere between these two extremes. Where, no one knows.

B. The second question for Christians is, what should I do to prepare, if anything? Some say, “Just have faith and leave events up to God.” Of course, all things are in His hands, but He does not expect us to twiddle our thumbs when problems arise. Proverbs 27:12 says, “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself; but the simple pass on, and are punished.” And Jesus, prophesying the fall of Jerusalem which took place in 70 a.d., said, “And when ye shall see Jerusalem compassed with armies, then know that the desolation thereof is nigh. Then let them which are in Judaea flee to the mountains; and let them which are in the midst of it depart out; and let not them that are in the countries enter thereinto.” (Luke 21:20-21)

Should I take precautions against the more serious possibilities? I liken it to having fire insurance on your house. Do you buy fire insurance because you know your house will burn down? No. If you knew that, you would just move. The probability of any particular house burning down is slim, very slim. So why do we all pay for fire insurance? Because if the house does burn down, the insurance will be invaluable in helping us get through the disaster.

I suggest that Y2K is similar. We do not know a disaster will strike, but things we do now can do a great deal to minimize the impact of the disaster if it does come. Moreover, the cost of much of what we might do to prepare, such as storing of food, fuel, medical supplies, clothes (especially for growing children), water, and so forth is in the nature of advance rather than extra expense. That is, much of these investments are for things that you will use anyway if Y2K proves not to be serious. Food you can eat. Extra fuel you will use. Stores of medicines, toothpaste, clothes, toilet paper, soap, and so on you can use come Y2K or not. In this sense, Y2K expenditures are much better than fire insurance, for once you pay the insurance premium, it is gone. You do not get a refund if your house does not burn down. But with many Y2K expenses you do get a return regardless.

Christians have two concerns: How can I provide for my family? And how can I minister in Jesus’ name to others?

One thing seems clear: If you do not provide for your family, you will NOT be able to minister to others.

A second thing seems obvious: the longer you wait to start preparing, the less likely you will find what you need. Concern about the problem is growing exponentially. If you are going to do something, get about it.

A third planning factor is that no one knows how long really serious Y2K effects may last. The pessimists say a minimum of two years. The realists say at least one year. The Pollyannas suggest a week or two. Make up your own mind, but my advice is to err on the side of caution. Very little is hurt if you prepare more thoroughly than proves necessary. But if you only make token preparations, you may have only postponed disaster for your family by a couple of weeks.

C. The obvious question at this point is: Where do I go for information and help in making decisions? The best place for information about the problem and for suggestions about how to prepare is the internet. Here is a list of helpful web sites:

www.garynorth.com I consider this the best single Y2K site. North believes it will be most serious, but much more important than his views (regardless of whether they prove valid) he updates his site daily and provides c. 800 links to other sites. Moreover, his site is easy to use. Go to the bottom of the first page and click on links. Scroll down the text on the links page and come to the topic list. By each topic is the date of the most recent update. Go to the topic you wish and scroll to the bottom of the chronologically arranged items in order to see the most recent additions. Click on what you want to read. You can go to almost all Y2K sites via garynorth.com.

www.y2ksurvive.com A “personal and family resource”. Extensive lists of suggestions for your preparation.

www.woodstove.com stoves, fireplaces, wood types & burning qualities.

www.waltonfeed.com A source of food for storage.

www.y2klinks.net Another extensive list of items you might need.

www.arkinstitute.com A source for non-hybrid seeds

www.gartnerweb.com The report to Congress of an international consulting firm’s worldwide Y2K research.

http://cassandraproject.org Another good site to stimulate your thoughts about individual preparedness.

Finally, I have prepared a checklist for our family’s preparation. It is extensive but does not include everything every family might need. For example, we have no infants and so things like baby food, diapers, and wipes which would be high priority for younger families are not included. Also, it continues to be refined. However, if anyone would like a copy, send me a note requesting it and a 55 cent stamped, self-addressed, letter-size envelope (55 cent stamp because the list is nine pages long), and I will be glad to send it to you.